Average transaction fees on the major Ethereum L2s (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) are now under $0.10. ETH is at $2,145. The fee-burn story has changed, and the market is still digesting it.
The mechanical reality
L2s settle to L1 in batches. That keeps L1 demand alive but at much lower per-transaction cost than the 2021 era. Net result: ETH burn rate is structurally lower than before EIP-4844.
Bull and bear cases
Bulls argue lower fees expand the addressable market and net usage growth swamps lower per-tx burn. Bears point out that ETH is now mildly inflationary again.
Verdict
This is a real fundamental shift. Our model has incorporated it via lower base-case drift on ETH versus 2024. Full Ethereum prediction.