If you had to summarize the 2024-2026 cycle in one chart, it would be the cumulative net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. That single line — steady, persistent, and largely indifferent to short-term price action — is doing something every prior cycle lacked: it is providing a baseline bid that resets the floor.
The structural shift
Prior cycles were driven by retail. This one is driven by allocator demand. The implication for forecasting is that traditional sentiment-based indicators (Fear & Greed, social volume) are losing predictive power relative to flow data.
Which assets benefit
Bitcoin is the obvious beneficiary, but Ethereum is increasingly close behind as ETH spot ETFs see consistent flow. Layer-2 tokens get a beta lift. Long-tail altcoins still trade on retail attention and are not seeing the same bid.
What could break it
A regulatory event — SEC litigation, a major exchange failure, or a coordinated G7 action — is the single biggest risk. Macro tightening would also hurt, but we view that as less likely in the near term.
How we are positioned in the model
The Daily Coins model has shifted weight toward BTC and ETH this quarter. Our base-case 1-year forecast for BTC is positive; our bull case sees new highs by Q3 2026. Read the full Bitcoin prediction →