By Editorial Team
2026-05-25
This article is for informational purposes only. Always verify information independently before making any decisions.
Bitcoin’s price plunged through the $75,000 support level on high volume in late May, reigniting debate about a further drop toward $60,000 as analysts and research firms shift to defensive stances. That breach marked the largest single-day liquidations since November, with forced selloffs totaling $4.3 billion.
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| BTC broke below the | $75,000–$76,000 “key” support zone in late May, with analysts flagging $60,000 as the next significant target, per Cryptonews.net. |
| Polymarket odds put a 51% chance on BITCOIN hitting | $55,000 in 2026, while only 31% expect it to drop For $45,000, according to cryptonews.net. |
| Trading volumes surged above the quarterly average as the selloff forced liquidations totaling over | $4.3 billion across major derivatives exchanges, according to CoinDesk.com. |
| K33 Research finds traders unu | K33 Research finds traders unusually defensive relative to previous correction cycles, with lower contagion risk from leverage wipeouts, according to coindesk.com. |
| BTC’s February low was | $60,000, a level now seen by analysts as a “final shock” floor if the current downturn accelerates, according to Cryptobreaking.com and cryptonews.net. |
| Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows remain optimistic but slowed to | $110 million per week in May from $290 million in April, tracking Block data. |
| Long-term forecasts still project a potential expansion toward | $150,000+ before 2026 ends, driven by supply halving and ETF demand, per Coinpedia.org. |
| Market remains split between bull continuation and retest of the February lows, leaving | $60,000 as a critical inflection point. |
Market context and what’s next for BTC
Bitcoin violated the $75,000–$76,000 support level in late May — the first such breach since its 2024 rally. That technical breakdown prompted research firms and analysts to reevaluate the broader market cycle, with volatility spiking to a six-month high. Data shows forced liquidations totaling $4.3 billion on the selloff day. Market depth thinned to levels not seen since the FTX collapse, according to Coindesk.
K33 Research notes that traders have adopted unusually defensive postures, using lower leverage compared to the 2022–2023 cycle. So cascading liquidations are less likely to cascade. Spot ETF net inflows averaged $110 million per week in May, well below April’s $290 million weekly pace. If this pace of ETF demand falters, it removes the primary cushion propping up prices — pushing BTC toward $60,000 for a decisive retest.
— Axis (@AxisFDN) April 2, 2026
Defensive positioning and leverage reduction
Current positioning in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps shows a marked reduction in aggregate leverage compared to 2022’s drawdowns. Funding rates across the largest exchanges sit near neutral — well below the overheated levels that triggered forced selling in previous cycles. Experts at K33 Research observe that traders have shifted to hedged stances, with options open interest on Deribit rising to $1.7 billion in protective puts.
With more capital parked in spot ETFs and fewer overleveraged longs, forced liquidations have declined from similar volatility spikes in November 2025. Defensive positioning has also led to a contraction in short-term speculative volumes, which now make up a substantially lower share of total trading activity than one year ago. figures show this behavioral shift means any further shock toward $60,000 is less likely to turn into a disorderly market rout.
Bull and bear scenarios: Forecasts for a possible final shock
Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto market analyst cited by cryptonews.net, flagged the break of the $75,000–$76,000 support zone as “pivotal,” suggesting that a rapid drawdown to the $60,000 level is now the base case for many swing traders. The Polymarket prediction market gives a 51% implied probability that Bitcoin falls as low as $55,000 in 2026, compared to 31% for $45,000. That gap reflects market consensus that $60,000–$55,000 represents both an attractive risk/reward zone for new inflows and a psychological “final shock” floor if further capitulation occurs. Options order books show heavy $60,000-strike put activity and protective collar positions — institutional hedges against breakdown to that area.
Bottom Confirmed? Bitcoin Ends March in the Green as Analyst Forecasts $60K–$84K Rangehttps://t.co/roGcGTxBbS
— Bitcoin.com News (@BitcoinNews) March 31, 2026
The medium-term bull scenario still calls for a resumption of the upward trend into the second half of 2026. However, failure to hold $60,000 would likely provoke further rebalancing, with historical drawdowns often overshooting initial support before market makers supply new demand.
BTC’s technical setup: Support, resistance, and historical context
Fibonacci retracement analysis from the $44,000 2024 low to the recent $80,000 high shows the 38.2% retracement at $60,360 and the 50% retracement at $62,000 — coinciding with likely areas where algorithmic buyers may step in. In prior correction cycles, such as 2022’s summer drawdown, prices briefly dipped below primary support before swift recoveries on renewed ETF flows. Given the current market structure, any penetration below $60,000 will test institutional demand resilience more than retail panic selling.
Historical price action and volatility: Lessons from past cycles
Bitcoin has rallied for 90 days off the $60,000 low reached in February, matching the duration of post-bottom advances in the 2021 and 2023 cycles. But unlike those periods, backward-looking realized volatility persists elevated. The 30-day realized volatility hit 45% in late May — up from earlier cycles, as tracked by coindesk.com.
Sentiment recovery in past cycles has depended on swift ETF-driven reaccumulation and a tapering of forced selling. Derivatives open interest is still elevated compared to February levels, suggesting market vulnerability to another high-volatility leg remains, even if leverage ratios are lower. Over the next quarter, further macro shocks — such as unexpected central bank rate changes or regulatory action on crypto products — could amplify swings around key thresholds.
Sentiment divide: Constructive expansion vs. extended correction
Some market analysts still expect a renewed bull expansion toward $150,000+ for Bitcoin before December, citing ETF maturation, global macro easing, and increased institutional exposure. By contrast, the bear case assumes a prolonged correction phase below $60,000 is necessary to flush out residual leveraged speculation and recalibrate price-to-network-value ratios toward more sustainable levels. The latest derivatives positions reveal that both camps are actively hedging, with notable volume split between $60,000 put options and $90,000 call spreads.
Long-term holders and new institutional entrants both disproportionately favor accumulating in the $60,000–$65,000 range.
Outlook: What must happen to avoid or trigger the final shock?
Analysts agree that the following conditions must hold for Bitcoin to avoid revisiting $60,000 in a “final shock”: stable or climbing ETF inflows above several hundred million dollars weekly, continued reductions in derivatives leverage, and no major macro risk-off shocks such as dollar surges or pervasive tech equity faltering. The return of ETF inflows in Q2 was instrumental in capping BTC’s February low at $60,000.
