Derive (DRV) price prediction: how far it could move
Not a target. These are the ranges Derive's own price history makes plausible, recomputed every day from the last year of daily closes.
Updated · price $0.2394
Based on its realised volatility over the past year (154% a year), Derive has a 90% range of $0.1158 to $0.4950 over the next 30 days and $0.0964 to $0.5943 by 31 December 2026, if it keeps moving the way it has. These are statistical ranges around today's price of $0.2394, not forecasts.
Last 180 days and the next 12 months · shaded: 68% and 90% ranges
31 December 2026 · 47 days away
Derive price prediction 2026
By 31 December 2026 (47 days from now), Derive's own volatility puts the price between $0.1377 and $0.4161 about two times in three, and between $0.0964 and $0.5943 about nine times in ten, around today's $0.2394. Under the same assumptions the chance of it doubling by then is 10%, and the chance of being above its all-time high of $0.5652 is 6.0%.
At the top of the 90% range, Derive would be worth $438M in total; at the bottom, $71.11M.
31 December 2027 · 412 days away
Derive price prediction 2027
By 31 December 2027 (412 days from now), Derive's own volatility puts the price between $0.0466 and $1.23 about two times in three, and between $0.0162 and $3.53 about nine times in ten, around today's $0.2394. Under the same assumptions the chance of it doubling by then is 34%, and the chance of being above its all-time high of $0.5652 is 30%.
At the top of the 90% range, Derive would be worth $2.61B in total; at the bottom, $11.96M.
31 December 2030 · 1,508 days away
Derive price prediction 2030
Stretched to 31 December 2030 — 1,508 days away — the same arithmetic gives a 68% range of $0.0105 to $5.48 and a 90% range of $0.001387 to $41.31. A band that wide is the honest answer: nobody can tell you where Derive will be in 2030, and the figures published as "2030 predictions" elsewhere are opinions, not measurements.
At the top of the 90% range, Derive would be worth $30.47B in total; at the bottom, $1.02M.
The bars share one log scale from $0.001387 to $41.31: the darker band is the 68% range, the lighter one the 90% range, the line today's price.
Can Derive reach $2?
A price is only half the question. Multiply it by the 737.53M DRV in circulation and you get the market value the price implies — which is the real test of whether it is plausible.
| Price | × today | Implied market value | vs Bitcoin today | Model chance by end 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $0.5000 | 2.1× | $369M | 0.00× | 33% |
| $0.5652 (all-time high) | 2.4× | $417M | 0.00× | 30% |
| $1 | 4.2× | $738M | 0.00× | 19% |
| $2 | 8.4× | $1.48B | 0.00× | 9.7% |
| $5 | 21× | $3.69B | 0.00× | 3.2% |
Implied value assumes today's circulating supply; new tokens entering circulation would raise it further. The model chance is the share of outcomes above that price on 31 December 2027 under the volatility assumptions above — a measure of how far the price has to travel, not a forecast.
Ranges by horizon
| Horizon | Likely (68%) | Wide (90%) |
|---|---|---|
| 7 days | $0.1934 – $0.2963 | $0.1685 – $0.3400 |
| 30 days | $0.1539 – $0.3723 | $0.1158 – $0.4950 |
| 90 days | $0.1114 – $0.5144 | $0.0680 – $0.8425 |
| 6 months | $0.0807 – $0.7104 | $0.0400 – $1.43 |
| 1 year | $0.0513 – $1.12 | $0.0190 – $3.02 |
| 31 Dec 2026 | $0.1377 – $0.4161 | $0.0964 – $0.5943 |
| 31 Dec 2027 | $0.0466 – $1.23 | $0.0162 – $3.53 |
"Likely" means about two times in three, "wide" about nine times in ten — if the next year is as volatile as the last. Crypto regularly breaks that assumption in both directions.
What the last year actually did
- Annualised volatility
- 154.0%
- Typical daily move (1σ)
- 8.06%
- Change over the year
- up 567.91%
- Deepest fall from a peak
- down 48.6%
- Best 30-day stretch
- up 350.0%
- Worst 30-day stretch
- down 40.8%
- 30-day windows moving ±20%+
- 59%
How these ranges are calculated
We take Derive's daily closing prices for the past year, compute the day-to-day change in log terms, and measure their standard deviation — the coin's realised volatility. Price changes in crypto compound, so the range for a horizon of T days is today's price multiplied and divided by e raised to z × σ × √T, where z is 1 for the 68% range and 1.645 for the 90% range. No trend is assumed: the middle of every range is today's price.
That makes the ranges honest about uncertainty and silent about direction, which is the point. They will be wrong when volatility changes — after a halving, an ETF decision, an exchange failure or a regulatory ruling — and they say nothing about whether Derive is a good investment. Multi-year "targets" for 2030 published elsewhere are opinions; the arithmetic above stretched to five years produces a range so wide it means nothing, which is why we stop at the end of next year.
About Derive
What Derive is
Derive is a decentralized options protocol built on Ethereum. It is designed to make options trading and liquidity provision possible through on-chain systems rather than a conventional order book operated by a central intermediary. Market participants can trade options against pooled liquidity, with contracts and settlement handled by blockchain-based code. The aim is to give users more open access to derivatives markets and to let liquidity providers support those markets programmatically. Options are contracts that give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a set price within a defined period.
What DRV is used for
DRV is the protocol’s native token. Its main network use is staking: ordinary holders can stake DRV in the protocol’s staking system, which aligns their holdings with protocol activity and may provide rewards. It is not primarily presented as a payment token for buying goods or paying ordinary invoices. The token also serves as an incentive within Derive’s ecosystem, helping direct participation toward protocol functions. Any staking rewards or benefits can change with protocol conditions, so DRV should not be treated as a fixed-interest deposit.
Supply
As of November 2026, Derive has a circulating supply of 737,529,683 DRV and a total supply of 843,308,717 DRV. Derive does not impose a fixed maximum supply. A capped token stops new issuance when its limit is reached, whereas an uncapped token can continue adding supply under the protocol’s rules. For holders, that distinction matters because future issuance can dilute the share of total supply represented by each token. The difference between circulating and total supply also means that not every issued token is currently in circulation.
How Derive has traded
DRV first traded in January 2025 at $0.1741. Its all-time high was $0.5652, set on 9 October 2026. The token’s annualised volatility is 154%, meaning its trading prices have varied substantially over the annualised measurement period. The deepest drawdown over the past year was -48.6%, which measures the fall from a prior peak to a subsequent trough. These figures describe past price behaviour only. They do not establish a normal trading range or indicate what the token may do next.
Risks to understand
The main risks combine market exposure with the mechanics of an on-chain derivatives protocol. Option holders can lose value because of price moves, volatility changes, time decay, liquidity conditions, and contract terms. Pooled liquidity and automated settlement can expose users to smart-contract faults, oracle errors, collateral problems, and counterparty shortfalls. Staking adds protocol and reward risks: a technical failure, weak demand, or changes to incentives can reduce returns, while tokens may remain difficult to withdraw during stressed markets. DRV is also exposed to supply dilution because it has no fixed maximum supply. Regulatory treatment of derivatives, staking, and crypto assets may change as rules develop, affecting access, operation, or available products.
Questions
What is the Derive price prediction for 2026?
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Can Derive reach $2?
Derive live price All prediction ranges
Not financial advice. Figures are for information and can be delayed or wrong; crypto assets are volatile and you can lose everything you put in. See our methodology and disclaimer.