Trump's dinner announcement triggers jump into Memecoin activity

A summary weekly review of the events on the crypto markets with a focus on trend sectors, liquidity, volatility, spreads and more in cooperation with market data providers Kaiko.

The big news of last week was the new crypto project by Cantor Fitzgerald with Softbank, Tether and Bitfinex. The company's 3 billion dollar plans include the mass purchase of Bitcoin and the challenge of Michael Saylor's strategy. Elsewhere, the CME XRP-Futures Bring on the market and the markets have moved further up. This week we explore:

• The Trump Memecoin mania, Til 2.
• Bitcoin surpassed traditional facilities in April.
• Bitcoin is expanding its dominance through old coins.

Trump's U -turn

US President Donald Trump tests the narrative (and patience of his political rivals) that Memecoins have no value. The recent developments in Trump token have annoyed his political rivals because the announcement of the dinner led to a price jump of 60% (from USD 9 to $ 14.50) and increased onchain activity.

On Wednesday, April 23, the team announced plans for an exclusive dinner for the top 220 owners behind the official Trump Memecoin, whereby the best 25 should be met with the incumbent president. After the announcement, the Onchain activity rose suddenly. Almost 10,000 wallets transferred Trump token on this day, which meant an increase of 200% compared to Tuesday.

This activity followed the announcement of the dinner. On Wednesday, Trump token worth around USD 2.3 billion was transferred on the blockchain, which made the day the most bustling of the month.

The majority of the volume was driven by smaller token owners. Wallets, which keep Trump tokens worth less than $ 100,000, dominated the activity on Wednesday. Larger wallets show more constant activity, with high volumes. This has stopped until Thursday, probably because of them OTC-DESKs, stock exchanges and market maker walls are, which have to handle structural operations in connection with the momentary powerful activity.

A closer look at the data shows that on the day the Trump incentive dinner was announced, the proportion of wallets, which transmit smaller amounts of Trump-tokens on the Solana blockchain. Usually about 46% of the active wallets Trump is transferred worth less than 10,000, this share rose to 75% after the announcement. The majority of this increase came from very small transfers (less than $ 1,000), which made 47.2% of the active wallets alone.

This represents a significant but short -lived deviation from the usual trend, in which the activity is divided between large transactions (over $ 100,000) and smaller transactions.

After the announcement of the dinner, not only the activities on the blockchain increased. Trump has recorded the highest daily trade volume on central stock exchanges since mid -February and thus the third largest volume since its introduction.

After the announcement of the exclusive dinner, the volume of the Trump token exceeded all other important Memecoins, including Doge. The US President's Memecoin made almost 50% of the total Memecoin trade volume on central stock exchanges last Wednesday.

The volumes have decreased since then because the euphoria has decreased, similar to the onchain activity. Based on the rules for the competition, however, we can expect more activity in the coming weeks. The rules stipulate that the best 220 average Trump owners are qualified for dinner between April 23 and May 12. It is to be expected that the activity will increase when the cut -off date moves closer and the owners bring their money back to the blockchain to qualify for the event.

Bitcoin extends a lead over old coins

Memoins like Trump dominated the news cycle in addition to BTC during the current housesee (2022 until today). In previous crypto market cycles there was always a rotation in small cap values, which was referred to as the “old coin season”. This cycle was a little different.

The last time that the BTC dominance was so high was in the first half of 2021, shortly before the market focused on cryptocurrencies with lower market capitalization.

However, this does not mean that this is a sign of an upcoming old coin season. Rather, there are several arguments that speak for a persistent dominance of BTC due to structural changes on the market.

The option outlook indicates a continued BTC rally

The option markets seem to be confident that the current status quo remains unchallenged until summer. The expiry date on May 30th at Deribit recorded a significant volume last month, especially after the big expiry date on Friday.

The majority of the increased activity since Friday focused on the $ 100,000 strike for this expiration day. In the past seven days, a volume of almost $ 350 million has been achieved with this strike.

Is this volume just a sign of the upward inclination of the markets after the improved mood last week, or is there a reason to expect a longer rally by May?

Based on the option delta, we can estimate the likelihood that the title will end up in the money. Our tool for the implicit volatility shows that the delta for this popular $ 100,000 strike is 0.37 at the end of May. In other words, the likelihood that the BTC cassacap is over $ 100,000 after May 30th is 37%. No bad prospects when you consider that BTC was traded at $ 74,000 three weeks ago.

A structural shift on the cryptoma markets?

Despite a sale in February/March together with broader risk systems, Bitcoin has exceeded most of the traditional facilities since the duty of the tariffs on the day of the liberation on April 2. This includes traditional safe ports such as gold and US state bonds as well as risk systems such as tech shares.

Die Robust performance In the past few weeks, some has prompted to rethink the potential of BTC as a safe haven. Historically, Bitcoin has attracted safe tributaries on several occasions, such as: B. during the Russia Ukraine War in February 2022 and the US banking crisis in March 2023. However, it followed the risk systems during larger sales and recovery.

So do we see the first signs of a structural shift towards the status of a safe port?

An important factor for the strength of Bitcoin is the increasing use of Bitcoin by companies as a treasury asset. This type of demand usually reacts less sensitive to short -term price fluctuations and ensures stability, since companies tend to accumulate Bitcoin in price declines.

The Cantor Fitzgerald project is also not an exit, as Michael Saylor's strategy was once. In the course of last year, the investment case has matured, so that over 130 companies, ETFs and countries keep Bitcoin worldwide. Even new investment vehicles have emerged, such as the OWNB from Bitwise, which offers an engagement in companies with more than 1,000 BTC.

The strategy has started to extend to other assets, since several companies have recently accepted money to expand their company investments to expand SOL. The market maker GSR has invested 100 million million USD in Upex as part of a pipe (private investment in a public company) to buy SOL. The Canadian company Sol Strategies secured $ 500 million last week to expand its SOL participations.